Crime Statistics — The Truth
How the Centre for Migration Control manipulates data to produce misleading statistics about migrants and crime
"Migrants are 34% more likely to be arrested than UK nationals"
This statistic was produced by Robert Bates of the Centre for Migration Control using FOI requests to 26 police forces — then published exclusively through GB News with no independent scrutiny of methodology.
Why This Statistic Is Deliberately Misleading
Migrants are disproportionately young men aged 18-35 — the demographic that commits the most crime in every country in the world, regardless of nationality.
When you control for age and sex — comparing like with like — non-citizens are not more likely to be incarcerated than British nationals. The Migration Observatory confirms that once age is accounted for, the difference disappears or reverses.
The CMC uses "arrests" not convictions — arrests include people who are subsequently found innocent. Foreign nationals may face higher arrest rates due to targeted policing, not higher offending.
The official figures tell a different story: Non-UK citizens made up 13.1% of convictions in 2024 and 12.1% of the prison population — virtually identical to their 13.5% share of the adult population . Source: Migration Observatory, Oxford University.
There are no reliable official UK statistics on crime by immigration status. The ONS confirmed in a 2025 FOI response that it does not hold crime data broken down by immigration or asylum status.
The CMC fills this gap with selectively chosen FOI requests to police forces — not a representative national dataset. Cherry-picked forces and cherry-picked crime types produce whatever result is desired.
If migrants drove crime, rising immigration should correlate with rising crime. It doesn't.
Academic studies for England and Wales find that overall property crime fell as the foreign-born share of the population rose. Researchers conclude there is no evidence that rising migration caused crime to increase. The opposite trend is observed.
| Measure | Non-UK nationals | Share of adult population | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautions and convictions 2024 | 13.1% | ~13.5% | Migration Observatory |
| Prison population June 2025 | 12.1% | ~13.5% | Migration Observatory |
| When age and sex are controlled: non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than British nationals. Source: Migration Observatory / The Guardian | |||
The "34% more likely" claim comes from Robert Bates, the sole operative of the Centre for Migration Control — a one-man operation based at 55 Tufton Street, Westminster.
- The CMC is a rebrand of Future for Leave, co-chaired by Richard Tice and Nigel Farage
- The first Telegraph article citing CMC research was published the same day it rebranded — written by Steven Edginton, former chief digital strategist of the Brexit Party
- The Good Law Project has challenged CMC statistics for ignoring age-band comparisons
- The company is registered at Companies House under a name invoking Alfred the Great's birthplace — deliberate nationalist symbolism
Age-Adjusted Crime Reality
When you compare like with like — same age, same sex — the CMC's inflated figures collapse