Impact Hub

Crime Statistics — The Truth

How the Centre for Migration Control manipulates data to produce misleading statistics about migrants and crime

The CMC Claim — Published by GB News

"Migrants are 34% more likely to be arrested than UK nationals"

Centre for Migration Control / GB News, 2024

This statistic was produced by Robert Bates of the Centre for Migration Control using FOI requests to 26 police forces — then published exclusively through GB News with no independent scrutiny of methodology.

Why This Statistic Is Deliberately Misleading

The Age Problem

Migrants are disproportionately young men aged 18-35 — the demographic that commits the most crime in every country in the world, regardless of nationality.

When you control for age and sex — comparing like with like — non-citizens are not more likely to be incarcerated than British nationals. The Migration Observatory confirms that once age is accounted for, the difference disappears or reverses.

The Population Problem

The CMC uses "arrests" not convictions — arrests include people who are subsequently found innocent. Foreign nationals may face higher arrest rates due to targeted policing, not higher offending.

The official figures tell a different story: Non-UK citizens made up 13.1% of convictions in 2024 and 12.1% of the prison population — virtually identical to their 13.5% share of the adult population . Source: Migration Observatory, Oxford University.

The Data Gap Problem

There are no reliable official UK statistics on crime by immigration status. The ONS confirmed in a 2025 FOI response that it does not hold crime data broken down by immigration or asylum status.

The CMC fills this gap with selectively chosen FOI requests to police forces — not a representative national dataset. Cherry-picked forces and cherry-picked crime types produce whatever result is desired.

The Trend Problem

If migrants drove crime, rising immigration should correlate with rising crime. It doesn't.

Academic studies for England and Wales find that overall property crime fell as the foreign-born share of the population rose. Researchers conclude there is no evidence that rising migration caused crime to increase. The opposite trend is observed.

The Real Numbers — Official Sources Only
Measure Non-UK nationals Share of adult population Source
Cautions and convictions 2024 13.1% ~13.5% Migration Observatory
Prison population June 2025 12.1% ~13.5% Migration Observatory
When age and sex are controlled: non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than British nationals. Source: Migration Observatory / The Guardian
Who Produces These Statistics?

The "34% more likely" claim comes from Robert Bates, the sole operative of the Centre for Migration Control — a one-man operation based at 55 Tufton Street, Westminster.

  • The CMC is a rebrand of Future for Leave, co-chaired by Richard Tice and Nigel Farage
  • The first Telegraph article citing CMC research was published the same day it rebranded — written by Steven Edginton, former chief digital strategist of the Brexit Party
  • The Good Law Project has challenged CMC statistics for ignoring age-band comparisons
  • The company is registered at Companies House under a name invoking Alfred the Great's birthplace — deliberate nationalist symbolism

Age-Adjusted Crime Reality

When you compare like with like — same age, same sex — the CMC's inflated figures collapse

Raw arrest rate claim: 34% higher. Age-adjusted conviction rate: Non-UK nationals 12.1% of prisoners vs 13.5% of population — actually lower than their population share.
Sources: Migration Observatory (Oxford University) — Migrant Convictions and Prison Population 2025 | ONS FOI Response — Crime by Nationality and Immigration Status 2025 | Full Fact — Asylum Seeker Benefits and Crime Statistics | The Ferret — Is there a link between migration and crime? | Factually.co — How do crime rates compare between migrants and native-born individuals in the UK?